Risk Assessment of Complex Infrastructures
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper studies the effect of cascading failures in the risk and reliability assessment of complex infrastructure systems. Conventional reliability assessment is limited to connectivity analysis and does not include the effect of increased flow demand or flow capacity of existing network components. Network flows are associated with congestion-based disruptions which can worsen connectivity-based predictions of performance. Susceptibility to cascading overloads is modeled with a tolerance parameter that measures current flow against flow capacity. In this study, natural hazards and targeted disruptions constitute the triggering events for cascading failures. It is observed that improvements in component tolerance alone do not ensure robustness to cascading failures. Topological changes are also needed to improve cascading robustness at practical tolerance levels. Interestingly, targeted disruptions of single components can affect network performance more severely than earthquake or lightning episodes. In the event of infrequent natural hazard disruptions, cascading failures do not develop due to significant damage during the triggering event phase.
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